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COVID-19 Progress Report and Local Recommendations

As of October 22, 2020 

The Health Department is tracking the status of COVID-19 in Pima County in order to make recommendations to business owners and the public about the protective measures currently necessary for slowing or preventing the spread of the virus.

Disease Data

Tracking information about cases and deaths helps us understand changes to the activity of COVID-19 in Pima County. These measures may indicate when COVID-19 spread is slowing in the community – whether naturally or as a result of the actions being taken to prevent the spread of the disease.

 
Cases over two consecutive weeks (with complete reporting of cases)
Percent Positivity 
COVID-19 like illness


Disease Data criteria for changing RED to GREEN

CASES over two consecutive weeks (with complete reporting of cases)

Not Met – The number of new positive cases is more than 100 cases/100,000/week for two weeks in a row
Progress – The number of new cases is between 10-100 cases/100,000/ week for two weeks in a row
Criteria Met – The number of new cases is less than 10 cases/100,000/week for two weeks in a row; if new case number goes above 10 cases/100,00, category will return to ‘progress’. 
 
Tracking Source – PCHD Cases by MMWR Week . See latest "Case, Death, and COVID-19 Like Illness Report." Confirmed with AzDHS data. This measure will lag behind by 12 days due to lag time in acquisition of data.

 

Percent Positivity 

Not Met – Two weeks with percent positivity above 10% 
Progress –Two weeks with percent positivity between 5 and 10%
Criteria Met – Two weeks with percent positivity less than 5%  If positivity begins to increase, the category will return to “Progress.” 
 
Tracking Source – AzDHS reporting. This measure will lag behind by 12 days due to lag time in acquisition of data.

COVID-19 Like Illness

Not Met:  Two weeks with hospital visits due to COVID-like illness greater than 10%.
Progress: Two weeks with hospital visits due to COVID-like illness between 5 and 10%.
Criteria Met: Two weeks with hospital visits less than 5%; if case percentage increases, the category will return to “progress”. 

Tracking Source – PCHD Cases by MMWR Week . See latest "Case, Death, and COVID-19 Like Illness Report."  Confirmed with AzDHS data. This measure will lag behind by 12 days due to lag time in acquisition of data. 



Healthcare System Availability

Understanding our healthcare system’s ability to identify new cases of COVID-19 AND the ability of healthcare facilities to safely and responsibly provide care for patients should a surge in COVID-19 cases occur is important. Our healthcare system’s capacity to provide testing for anyone with symptoms, care to patients, and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) makes it possible for our community to respond to future cases of COVID-19.

 
Lab Testing Availability and Utilization
Adequate hospital bed capacity to care for 2X the current COVID cases (+ surge) – Statewide
Sufficient Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for Emergency Responders


Healthcare System Availability criteria for changing RED to GREEN

Lab Testing Availability and Utilization

Not Met – The number of new tests completed plateaus
Progress – The number of new tests completed begins to increase over a 7-day period putting us on target to test 10% of the population  
Criteria Met – Sustained number of completed tests for 14 days.  If the number of new tests completed begins to decrease for more than a 7 day period, the category will return to “Progress.”

 

Tracking Source – ADHS Laboratory Testing https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Adequate hospital bed capacity to care for 2X the current COVID cases (+ surge) – Statewide

Not Met – The number of inpatient, ICU, and emergency room positive or suspected COVID-19 patients continues to increase or plateau, regardless of rate
Progress – The number of inpatient, ICU, and emergency room positive or suspected COVID-19 patients decreases for at least a 7 day period
Criteria Met – The number of inpatient, ICU, and emergency room positive or suspected COVID-19 patients continues to decrease for a continual 14 days AND remains decreasing while all other criteria are met. If the number of inpatient, ICU, and emergency room positive or suspected COVID-19 patients begins to increase, the category will return to “Progress.”

 

Tracking Source – ADHS COVID-19 Deaths Data Portal
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Sufficient Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for Emergency Responders

Not Met Continued  request for PPE from sources outside their normal supply channels (i.e. county, state, or federal stockpiles or directly purchased supplies) for emergency responders
Progress –Requests for county, state, or federally provided PPE decreased by 50% from highest request
Criteria Met –No new requests for county, state, or federally provided PPE supplies for emergency responders

 

Tracking Source – Logistics Requests and Distributions Report https://webcms.pima.gov/cms/One.aspx?portalId=169&pageId=533608



Public Health Tracking and Prevention

This set of tracking points helps us understand the capacity of our local public health system’s ability to quickly identify, investigate, and conduct surveillance of new cases and outbreaks of COVID-19 in our community and provide appropriate follow- up care to hospitalized patients.

 
Timely case investigation
Testing of symptomatic contacts within 48 hours
Facilities/support for patients who can’t be discharged home – Statewide


Public Health Tracking & Prevention criteria for changing RED to GREEN

Timely case investigation

Not Met –50 % of cases have initial interview within 48 hours of notification
Progress –65% of cases have initial interview with 48 hours of notification
Criteria Met –  80% of cases have initial interview within 48 hours of notification

Testing of symptomatic contacts within 48 hours

Not Met –Contact and refer symptomatic contacts of positive cases within 48 hours in 20% or less of identified cases
Progress –Contact and refer symptomatic contacts of positive cases within 48 hours in 50% or less of identified cases
Criteria Met –Contact and refer symptomatic contacts of positive cases within 48 hours in 75% or less of identified cases

Facilities/support for patients who can’t be discharged home – Statewide

Not Met – No policies or procedures are in place for the transfer of COVID-19 positive cases into congregate living or long-term care settings
Progress – Policies or procedures are in place for the transfer of COVID-19 positive cases into congregate living or long-term care settings and 50% 0f transfers occur within 48 hours
Criteria Met – Policies or procedures are in place for the transfer of COVID-19 positive cases into congregate living or long-term care settings and 80 % transfers occur within 48 hours

 

Tracking Source – Number of positive or suspected COVID-19 patients discharged from the hospital
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php



Local COVID-19 Prevention Recommendations.

Using the above status, the Health Department is recommending the public follow these guidelines and protective measures. 

Individuals:

  • All medically vulnerable people and people over age 65 should continue to stay home as much as possible
  • All physical distancing measures should remain in place
  • No groups >10
  • Resumption of some non-essential travel

Employers:

Follow County Back-to-Business rules and guidance
  • Phased return to work with physical distancing
  • Common areas remain closed
  • Telework if appropriate/available
  • Medically vulnerable workers telework or stay home
* For all phases of the recovery, the public should continue good prevention practices:

  • Stay home if sick
  • Wash hands with soap and water/hand sanitizer
  • Avoid touching face
  • Sneeze/cough into a tissue or elbow.
  • Disinfect frequently used items and surfaces
  • Use cloth face coverings while in public
  • Continue physical distancing and use protective equipment
  • Temperature/wellness checks at entrances to public buildings and workplaces
  • Sanitization and disinfection of common and high-traffic areas
  • Limitations on business travel

Other Resources

Governor Ducey's reopening guidance.
CDC guidance